People tend to offer too much importance to calculating probabilities, making scenarios, deciding what is the best action to take, anticipating what is going to happen. It’s a constant struggle to anticipate the future in order to minimise risks and avoid failure.
The truth is that all this is great, but not of much use. Many people come now and say that the economical crisis should have been anticipated and it was obvious that it was going to happen, but if you ask them when the next one will be they won’t be able to tell you.
Other people can’t understand why their business failed while an other, similar to theirs, is a success. The same goes for almost all aspects of life, while some fail, others succeed. There is no model or recipe for success. What worked once may not work again, what worked for me might not work for you.
Every model has a random factor that can’t be excluded and which most of the time is decisive to the outcome. Every decision we make in our lives can be turned around by some random event, opportunities can arise from nothing, any plan can go great or go wrong just by the smallest detail.
The only thing you can do is act. Never wait for the right moment, for the perfect opportunity or the perfect idea. Randomness can work for or against you, the only way to find out is to go out there and do something. If you fail, try again until you succeed. Eventually you will.
Every event that has happened had an 100% chance to happen, we just didn’t see it.