Predicting the past

The past is easy to explain. After every event explanations are easy to find, causes are easy to fight off, elements that should have suggested that outcome become obvious and false prophets arise.

Think about the economical crisis and all the people who now claim they had predicted it. If you ask them when the next one will be, most certainly they won’t be able to tell you. They are even going to argue that the next one won’t be so obvious like this one was.

This only creates a false illusion of the capacity to predict the future in which many people become trapped. They become so confident in their ability to see what is going to happen that most times they forget to take into consideration basic statistics and obvious faults in their logic.

The more people consider themselves experts in a field and able to predict what is going to happen, the more likely they are to be wrong when making a prediction. Life is random and luck plays an important role in our day to day life so the best option is to take into consideration statistical probabilities and work from there.

Instead of trying to predict the future try to model it, shape it as you want it to be. Creating the future as you want it to be is the best way of predicting it.