Regression to the mean

Many people never take into account the phenomenon called regression to the mean. The basis of this is that if someone had an extremely good performance the natural tendency is that the next one will be lower, heading towards the average. If the second measurement is higher than the first, then actually the first was closer to the average and the second is just an abnormality. The same applies to low performances.

This explains why most really great performances are just a case of really good luck, and when trying to reproduce that most people will end up with lower results. At the same time, people who will fail badly will probably do better on future tries.

Also, because performances tend to be headed towards the average the only logical thing to do is to put on the hard work and increase your capabilities. This way, by increasing your average results you will maximize the potential of a lucky strike and reduce the consequences of failure.

Taking as many chances as possible will only increase the chance to have that amazing stroke of luck and do something memorable.